SSI MLB System by AFLGuru

[AFLGuru]

I'm going to track out SSI's alternate rl system as best I can for the remainder of the season just to see if it really is worthwhile, and I'll keep it all here in the tracker forum. Units for arguments' sake are $100. All prices from Olympic. Always listed pitchers.

Series starting 6/11/07

Dodgers -2.5 (+300) (Hernandez/Wolf)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+215) (Towers/Morris)
White Sox -1.5 (+185) (Vazquez/Eaton)

 

[AFLGuru]

I should have mentioned wagered amounts before, so I'll correct that now.

Series Starting 6/11/07
Dodgers (-2.5) $100/$300 (Hernandez/Wolf)
Blue Jays (-1.5) $100/$215 (Towers/Morris)
White Sox (-1.5) $100/$185 (Vazquez/Eaton)

 

[AFLGuru]

Considering I posted it as -2.5 +300, I'll keep it there. If it makes a difference, I'll make a note of it.

Series Starting 6/12/07
Marlins (-1.5) $100/$210 (Carmona/Olson) (G1)
Diamondbacks (-1.5) $100/$210 (Webb/Wang) (G1)
Rockies (-1.5) $100/$230 (Cook/Wakefield) (G1)
Brewers (-1.5) $100/$220 (Suppan/Verlander) (G1)
Rangers (-1.5) $100/$155 (Millwood/Duke) (G1)
Nationals (-1.5) $100/$225 (Bowie/Cabrera) (G1)
Reds (-1.5) $100/$205 (Escobar/Arroyo) (G1)
Padres (-1.5) $100/$170 (Maddux/Kazmir) (G1)
Athletics (-1.5) $100/$225 (Kennedy/Oswalt) (G1)
Mariners (-1.5) $100/$175 (Washburn/Hill) (G1)
Braves (-1.5) $100/$190 (Davies/Slowey) (G1)


Still need to add Kansas City/St. Louis when a favorite it clear

Possibly 3 more plays pending White Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers results

 

[AFLGuru]

I blew the Dodger game. We'll just consider that series over with and I'll denote in my personal records that I'm an idiot and what I should have done.

Series Starting 6/11/07
Mets/Dodgers (L) (-$100)
Giants (-1.5) $100/$200 (Burnett/Lowry) (G2 Current -$100)
White Sox (-1.5) $100/$205 (Contreras/Hamels) (G2 Current -$100)

Series Starting 6/12/07
Kansas City (-1.5) $100/$195 (Thompson/Bannister) (G1)

 

[AFLGuru]

I've decided in event of a 4-game series, we'll track the dog for the 4th game for 2 units as well.

Closed Series Starting 6/11/07-6/12/07
Dodgers/Mets (+$220)
Nationals/Orioles (+$225)
Indians/Marlins (+$210)
Angels/Reds (+$205)
Mariners/Cubs (+$175)
Cardinals/Royals (+$195)

Two Unit Series Today
Blue Jays (-1.5) $200/$370 (McGowan/Linecum) (G3 Current -$200)
White Sox (-1.5) $200/$320 (Danks/Kendrick) (G3 Current -$200)

The Jays and Sox are the early games today. The other 7 series I'll get after I get home from work.

Series Game 1: 6-9 (+$330)
Series Game 2: 0-2 (-$200)
Series Game 3: 0-0 ($0)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 6-11 (+$130)
Series Record: 6-0 (9 pending)

 

[AFLGuru]

Anyone who has Excel who ever wants the records of this can just email me through the mods, by the way. It's a heck of a lot more in detail than this.

Looks like the Blue Jays series is a winner while the White Sox series was a loser. I'm trying to figure out what an "optimal" win % is for these by series. We'll find out.

Series Starting 6/12/07 (Game 2s for 1 unit)
Rockies (-1.5) $100/$320 (G2 Current -$100) (Fogg/Schilling)
Brewers (-1.5) $100/$170 (G2 Current -$100) (Capuano/Maroth)
Rangers (-1.5) $100/$225 (G2 Current -$100) (Tejada/Snell)
Diamondbacks (-1.5) $100/$280 (G2 Current -$100) (Hernandez/Mussina)
Devil Rays (-1.5) $100/$310 (G2 Current -$100) (Peavy/Jackson)
Astros (-1.5) $100/$205 (G2 Current -$100) (Blanton/Sampson)
Braves (-1.5) $100/$155 (G2 Current -$100) (James/Silva)

 

[AFLGuru]

Closed Series Starting 6/11-6/12
Dodgers/Mets (+$220)
Nationals/Orioles (+$225)
Indians/Marlins (+$210)
Angels/Reds (+$205)
Mariners/Cubs (+$175)
Cardinals/Royals (+$195)Rockies/Red Sox (+$220)
Blue Jays/Giants (+$170)

White Sox/Phillies (-$400)

I'm going to take liberties and play the dog in the Milwaukee series tomorrow because neither team covered 1.5, but I'm only going to play it for 1 unit as if it were Game 2. Hopefully it wins and we can pretend like that "no game" ever happened.

Aside from that, we have five 2 unit plays tomorrow.

Series Game 1: 6-9 (+$330)
Series Game 2: 1-7 (-$380)
Series Game 3: 1-1 (+$170)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 8-17 (+$120)
Series Record: 8-1 (6 pending)

 

[AFLGuru]

Series Starting 6/11-6/12 (Game 3, 2 units except Milwaukee)
Brewers (-1.5) $100/$130 (Sheets/Durbin) (G2 Current -$100)
Diamondbacks (-1.5) $200/$620 (Davis/Pettitte) (G3 Current -$200)
Devil Rays (-1.5) $200/$360 (Germano/Howell) (G3 Current -$200)
Athletics (-1.5) $200/$330 (Gaudin/Jennings) (G3 Current -$200)

I'll post night games later.

 

[AFLGuru]

Bad day so far... Like I said, if we get out of here 10-5, I feel lucky. Now I consider it lucky if we get to 9-6.

Closed Series Starting 6/11-6/12
Dodgers/Mets (+$220)
Nationals/Orioles (+$225)
Indians/Marlins (+$210)
Angels/Reds (+$205)
Mariners/Cubs (+$175)
Cardinals/Royals (+$195)
Rockies/Red Sox (+$220)
Blue Jays/Giants (+$170)

White Sox/Phillies (-$400)
Brewers/Tigers (-$200)
Diamondbacks/Yankees (-$400)
Devil Rays/Padres (-$400)
Athletics/Astros (-$400)

Series Game 1: 6-9 (+$330)
Series Game 2: 1-8 (-$480)
Series Game 3: 1-4 (-$430)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 8-21 (-$580)
Series Record: 8-5 (2 pending)


Series Starting 6/12 (Both for 2 units, Game 3)
Braves (-1.5) $200/$500 (Hudson/Santana) (G3 Current -$200)
Rangers (-1.5) $200/$480 (Loe/Gorzelanny) (G3 Current -$200)

Need both to bust ahead in this, but I'll be happy with 1 of the 2.

 

[AFLGuru]

Idiot Wickman blew it for us. Here's how Week 1 ended...

Closed Series Starting 6/11-6/12
Dodgers/Mets (+$220)
Nationals/Orioles (+$225)
Indians/Marlins (+$210)
Angels/Reds (+$205)
Mariners/Cubs (+$175)
Cardinals/Royals (+$195)
Rockies/Red Sox (+$220)
Blue Jays/Giants (+$170)
Rangers/Pirates (+$280)

White Sox/Phillies (-$400)
Brewers/Tigers (-$200)
Diamondbacks/Yankees (-$400)
Devil Rays/Padres (-$400)
Athletics/Astros (-$400)
Braves/Twins (-$400)

Series Game 1: 6-9 (+$330)
Series Game 2: 1-8 (-$480)
Series Game 3: 2-5 (-$150)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 9-22 (-$300)
Series Record: 9-6

Seems to be that the goal may be 19-11 every 2 weeks on these series to profit. Back at it tomorrow with 15 games.

 

[AFLGuru]

Series Starting 6/15/07
Padres (-1.5) $100/$185 (Wells/Lilly) (G1)

The rest later...

 

[AFLGuru]

I'm not going to be around tonight, so I'm posting the whole card now.

Series Starting 6/15/07
Padres (-1.5) $100/$185 (Wells/Lilly) (G1)
Braves (-1.5) $100/$280 (Carlyle/Sabathia) (G1)
Pirates (-1.5) $100/$200 (Garland/Malholm) (G1)
Diamondbacks (-1.5) $100/$200 (Owings/Bedard) (G1)
Phillies (-1.5) $100/$195 (Bonderman/Lieber) (G1)
Giants (-1.5) $100/$180 (Zito/Tavarez) (G1)
Mets (-1.5) $100/$230 (Perez/Clemens) (G1)
Nationals (-1.5) $100/$320 (Bacsik/Halladay) (G1)
Rangers (-1.5) $100/$180 (Padilla/Belisle) (G1)
Marlins (-1.5) $100/$170 (Mitre/Meche) (G1)
Astros (-1.5) $100/$225 (Hernandez/Rodriguez) (G1)
Brewers (-1.5) $100/$155 (Vargas/Baker) (G1)
Rockies (-1.5) $100/$180 (Shields/Lopez) (G1)
Cardinals (-1.5) $100/$260 (Looper/Haren) (G1)
Angels (-1.5) $100/$180 (Santana/Lowe) (G1)

 

[AFLGuru]

Closed Series Starting 6/15
Diamondbacks/Orioles (+$200)
White Sox/Pirates (+$200)
Mets/Yankees (+$230)
Mariners/Astros (+$225)
Brewers/Twins (+$155)
D-Rays/Rockies (+$180)

Series Game 1: 11-19 (+$400)
Series Game 2: 1-8 (-$480)
Series Game 3: 2-5 (-$150)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 14-32 (-$230)
Series Record: 14-6 (9 pending)

 

[AFLGuru]

Someone pointed out an error that I may have in my record keeping... I'll check that over and get back to it tonight.

Series Starting 6/15 (All Game 2, Current -$100)
Padres (-1.5) $100/$170
Nationals (-1.5) $100/$260

Back with the 4:00 and 7:00 start times later. 9 games in total today.

 

[AFLGuru]

Phillies (-1.5) $100/$175 (Miller/Moyer)
Giants (-1.5) $100/$260 (Cain/Matsuzaka)
Dodgers (-1.5) $100/$190 (Weaver/Schmidt)
Marlins (-1.5) $100/$165 (Vanden Hurk/De La Rosa)
Rangers (-1.5) $100/$250 (Wright/Harang)
Cardinals (-1.5) $100/$240 (Wellemeyer/Dinardo)
Indians (-1.5) $100/$180 (Smoltz/Byrd)

 

[AFLGuru]

I'm going to consider the Cards a winner... if I need to change it I will.

Closed Series Starting 6/15
Diamondbacks/Orioles (+$200)
White Sox/Pirates (+$200)
Mets/Yankees (+$230)
Mariners/Astros (+$225)
Brewers/Twins (+$155)
D-Rays/Rockies (+$180)
Tigers/Phillies (+$75)
Cardinals/Athletics (+$140)

Magic number is 10-6, meaning we need 2 of the 7 tomorrow (and probably realistically need 3 of the 7 tomorrow unless they're biggies that hit). Game 2s have been terrible to us so far.

Series Game 1: 11-19 (+$400)
Series Game 2: 3-15 (-$765)
Series Game 3: 2-5 (-$150)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 16-39 (-$515)
Series Record: 16-6 (7 pending)

 

[AFLGuru]

Gotta do everything early today because I'll be out with the old man all day. If I miss pitching changes and somebody catches it, please post the corrected line on here for the alternate run line.

Series Starting 6/15 (All G3 Current -$200)
Padres (-1.5) $200/$350 (Maddux/Hill)
Giants (-1.5) $200/$450 (Morris/Wakefield)
Braves (-1.5) $200/$480 (Davies/Carmona)
Nats (-1.5) $200/$410 (Bowie/Towers)
Rangers (-1.5) $200/$400 (Millwood/Arroyo)
Marlins (-1.5) $200/$330 (Olson/Bannister)
Dodgers (-1.5) $200/$460 (Escobar/Wolf)

May have to take 3 of these 7 today, which is a scary proposition. Good luck and happy Father's Day.

 

[AFLGuru]

Closed Series Starting 6/15
Diamondbacks/Orioles (+$200)
White Sox/Pirates (+$200)
Mets/Yankees (+$230)
Mariners/Astros (+$225)
Brewers/Twins (+$155)
D-Rays/Rockies (+$180)
Tigers/Phillies (+$75)
Cardinals/Athletics (+$140)Padres/Cubs (+$150)
Nationals/Blue Jays (+$210)
Rangers/Reds (+$200)

Braves/Indians (-$400)
Giants/Red Sox (-$400)
Marlins/Royals (-$400)
Angels/Dodgers (-$400)

Results for Series Starting 6/15: 11-4 (+$365)

Overall
Series Game 1: 11-19 (+$400)
Series Game 2: 3-15 (-$765)
Series Game 3: 5-9 (+$210)
Series Game 4: 0-0 ($0)
Total: 19-43 (-$155)
Series Record: 19-11

Perhaps we need 28 wins in 3 weeks, not 19 in 2 weeks to produce on this, and in truth if we did it right, we would have had the 20th win in 2 weeks. No sense in dwelling now. More coming this afternoon.

 

[AFLGuru]

Series Starting 6/18
Giants (-1.5) $100/$180 (Lowry/Gallardo)
Braves (-1.5) $100/$250 (Schilling/James) (tremendous price here, btw)
Nationals (-1.5) $100/$245 (Maroth/Chico)
Indians (-1.5) $100/$205 (Hamels/Lee)
Twins (-1.5) $100/$225 (Silva/Maine)
Marlins (-1.5) $100/$180 (Johnson/Contreras)
Royals (-1.5) $100/$210 (Perez/Wainright)
D-Rays (-1.5) $100/$245 (Jackson/Hernandez)
Reds (-1.5) $100/$235 (Blanton/Lohse)
Astros (-1.5) $100/$300 (Sampson/Lackey)

 

[AFLGuru]

Good day yesterday.

Closed Series Starting 6/18
Red Sox/Braves (+$250)
Phillies/Indians (+$205)
Royals/Cardinals (+$210)
D-Rays/D-Backs (+$245)

Series Starting 6/18-6/19
Giants (-1.5) $100/$240 (Lincecum/Sheets) (G2)
Nationals (-1.5) $100/$245 (Durbin/Simontachi) (G2)
Blue Jays (-1.5) $100/$220 (Penny/McGowan) (G1)
Mets (-1.5) $100/$245 (Santana/Sosa) (G2) (Another great price)
White Sox (-1.5) $100/$185 (Willis/Danks) (G2)
Rangers (-1.5) $100/$200 (Marshall/Tejada) (G1)
Rockies (-1.5) $100/$250 (Mussina/Fogg) (G1)
Orioles (-1.5) $100/$330 (Trachsel/Peavy) (G1)
Reds (-1.5) $100/$240 (Bailey/Gaudin) (G2)
Astros (-1.5) $100/$220 (Jennings/Colon) (G2)
Pirates (-1.5) $100/$180 (Gorzelanny/Batista) (G1)